Could the Nipah virus cause the next big pandemic? What science says

Could the Nipah virus cause the next big pandemic? What science says

 The Nipah virus is a deadly zoonotic disease under international surveillance. Learn about its symptoms, how it spreads, and why it worries scientists.

Could the Nipah virus cause the next big pandemic? What science says


The Nipah virus has once again triggered international alerts after new infections were confirmed in India. Although it is not a new pathogen, it is one of the deadliest circulating in nature.


Its high mortality rate, the possibility of transmission between people, and the absence of a vaccine or specific treatment place it among the viruses with the greatest potential risk globally, according to international health organizations.


For years, the World Health Organization (WHO) has kept it under priority surveillance. The question is inevitable: could it become the next major pandemic?

What is the Nipah virus and where did it come from?

The Nipah virus is an emerging zoonosis , that is, an infectious disease that can be transmitted from animals to humans.

It was first identified in 1998 during an outbreak among pig farmers in Malaysia and Singapore, although its natural reservoir is the frugivorous bats of the genus Pteropus , known as fruit bats.

These animals can carry the virus without showing symptoms and spread it through saliva, urine, or food debris.

Since its discovery, outbreaks have been concentrated mainly in Bangladesh and India, with sporadic appearances in other Southeast Asian countries.

What makes the Nipah virus particularly worrying is its lethality , which can vary between 40% and 75%, depending on the outbreak and access to early medical care.


How is the Nipah virus transmitted?

The Nipah virus is transmitted in several ways, which makes it difficult to control in certain regions:

  • Transmission occurs from animals to humans through direct contact with secretions from infected bats or pigs. A common example is the consumption of contaminated fruit or palm sap.
  • From person to person , through close contact with bodily fluids, such as saliva or respiratory secretions.

This last point is key. Unlike other zoonotic viruses, Nipah can be transmitted between humans , which has led to outbreaks in hospitals and put healthcare workers at risk. It is not airborne like the flu, but close and prolonged contact can be enough to become infected.

Symptoms, when the infection becomes critical

Symptoms often begin nonspecifically, which complicates early detection. In the first stage, the following may appear:

  • High fever
  • Headache
  • Muscle pain
  • Nausea and vomiting
  • General malaise

However, in many patients the disease progresses rapidly to viral encephalitis , an inflammation of the brain that can cause disorientation, seizures, extreme drowsiness and coma in as little as 24 to 48 hours.


Furthermore, some cases develop acute respiratory failure , which increases the risk of death. Even after recovery, neurological relapses have been documented months or years later, making the virus a long-term health threat.

Why is India on health alert?

India has recorded recurring outbreaks of Nipah virus for more than two decades, especially in states such as Kerala and West Bengal.

In the most recent episodes, infections were confirmed among health workers, which activated isolation protocols, contact tracing and intensive epidemiological surveillance.

Each new case is treated as an emergency, since even small outbreaks can quickly overwhelm local health systems due to the severity of the clinical conditions.

Could the Nipah virus reach Mexico?

According to specialists and international organizations, the risk of local transmission in Mexico is extremely low . There are no populations of bats of the genus Pteropus in the country , which act as the main reservoir for the virus.

Furthermore, so far no antibodies or circulation of the Nipah virus have been detected in humans or animals in Mexico or in the rest of the American continent.

Even so, experts stress the importance of global monitoring, as human mobility and environmental changes can alter risk scenarios.


Without a vaccine or treatment: the great challenge of the Nipah virus

One of the most troubling aspects of the Nipah virus is that there is no vaccine or specific approved antiviral treatment . Treatment is limited to intensive care, respiratory support, and management of neurological complications.

For this reason, prevention remains the most effective tool: avoiding contact with wild animals, consuming safe food, and reinforcing biosecurity protocols in hospitals and affected communities.

Nipah virus and emerging zoonoses: a global warning

The Nipah virus is not an isolated case. It is part of a growing list of emerging zoonotic diseases that arise when human activity encroaches on natural ecosystems and increases contact between people and wildlife.

On an increasingly interconnected planet pressured by climate change and deforestation, the question is not just whether Nipah could cause a pandemic, but how many similar viruses are waiting for the right conditions to do so .

Understanding, monitoring, and preventing these threats will be key to addressing future health challenges.



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